Mitt Romney Has a 2 in 3 Chance of beating Obama and has already won the GOP Nomination

Yes, Mitt Romney is a terrible political candidate. Sure, Santorum could embarrass Romney in Ohio. Gingrich could raise questions by winning Georgia. And Paul could upset Romney in some small caucus state.

And of course, Romney will continue to stick his foot in his mouth and say things to remind everyone he is an out of touch rich guy.

It just doesn’t matter.

On a 1 to 10 scale for candidates (with 1 being George McGovern and 10 being Ronald Reagan), Mitt Romney is, at best, a 1.2. But since all of his GOP current and former opponents are precisely negative infinity, it just doesn’t matter.

Mitt Romney has already won the GOP nomination-we all might as well come to grips with it.

So why do I claim Romney has a 2 in 3 chance of beating Obama?

For starters, contrary to popular belief, the GOP will rally around Romney. Why? Because the base of the Party is motivated by one thing only: hatred of President Obama-nothing else. Romney is irrelevant to that equation.

Some political insiders persist in spreading the idea that it would not be logical for Tea Party members and fervent conservatives to support Romney, given his numerous past liberal positions on social issues, not to mention Romneycare. Astute observers will instantly spot the flaw in the previous sentence: I used the word “logical” and “Tea Party” in the same sentence.

Remember, the Tea Party ostensibly stands for eliminating Washington of its career politicians and insiders, traditional values and is in favor of reducing government spending. So for much of the last 3 months most self-professed Tea Party members have supported Newt Gingrich, a 35 year Washington career politician who has enriched himself while making government bigger, all the while showing contempt for traditional values.

If the Tea Party can pretend to love Newt out of principle, then they will surely find a way of supporting Romney out of some other string of illogical nonsense.

Romney will have a unified party behind him.

There are three primary scenarios for the fall election.

Scenario one. The economy continues to improve. Team Obama makes no flubs. Optimism flourishes. Romney runs a lackluster, flub-filled campaign. Yes, under this scenario, Obama wins, but not by a large margin.

Scenario two. Europe’s economy takes a major tumble this summer. Unemployment numbers for the U.S. trend up in September and October. Optimism plummets. The only message that resonates with independent and moderate voters is “the economy and unemployment are awful and getting worse. Obama had a chance. Let’s try the other guy-he couldn’t be worse.” If this happens, Obama loses to Romney. The same scenario applies if China’s real estate bubble bursts or any other economic problem infects the world economic bloodstream.

Scenario Three. The economy holds, but the Roger Ailes/Fox News/Karl Rove/Rush Limbaugh/GOP message slime machine does what it does best, it creates an utterly phony issue out of thin air that destroys Obama’s credibility and allows Romney to win the White House.

Republicans might not be very good at governing, but no one can deny that they are great at sliming, vilifying and character assassinating Democrats. Here’s a quick review:

1. 1988. Michael Dukakis was destroyed because of “Willie Horton ad” nonsense regarding a furlough program that most Republican governors in the country had also implemented.

2. 1992, 1996. True, the best Democratic politician of the last 70 years, Bill Clinton, was able to prevent the GOP slime machine from destroying his campaigns. But let’s not forget, the GOP propaganda mill did convince a majority of Americans that their taxes had gone up, that the deficit was worse than ever and that the economy was shrinking in 1994. None of those things were true, but those lies resulted in the GOP takeover of the House and led the ground work for the successful Ken Starr Witch Hunt and the impeachment of Clinton in 1998.

3. 2000. We all remember how Al Gore got himself in trouble by lying, exaggerating and claiming “I invented the Internet” and that he was the inspiration for the characters in “Love Story.” The only problem is that he never actually said these things (I dare you, try to find a literal quote anywhere of Gore saying “I invented the Internet” that didn’t have its origins in a GOP press release). It turns out that the GOP message machine just created the scandal of “Gore is a liar and exaggerator” out of thin air and through constant repetition, it became a reality.

4. 2004. John Kerry, for all his flaws as a candidate (and yes, there were many) was a genuine war hero. Bush was a draft dodger and a national guardsman who appears to many to have gone AWOL. But the GOP Slime Machine created its “Swift Boat” campaign and they successfully inverted reality until most independent voters perceived Bush as the war hero and Kerry as the coward.

5. 2008 was a rare misstep for the GOP message machine. GOP slime merchants were obsessed with Hillary Clinton and just assumed she would be the Democratic Nominee. They were so excited about the prospect of reusing their greatest “Slime Hillary” hits that they weren’t thinking clearly. They thought all they’d have to do is trot out the “Hillary killed Vince Foster” nonsense or “”Hillary is a Lesbian” garbage and win. So they were uncharacteristically caught flat-footed when the unknown Obama won the nomination running against an 8 year record of Bush-GOP incompetence.

But since the 2008 campaign, the GOP slime machine has regained its footing and has continued doing what it does best: creating completely phony BS scandals about a Democratic president and then getting not only the conservative media but the mainstream media to obsess over it for months at a time. Birth certificates? Obama is a Muslim? The Administration hates Catholics? At this point, the only thing that should surprise us about the right wing message machine is if they don’t wage an all out 2-month war claiming Obama personally poisoned Andrew Breitbart.

The bottom line is that the GOP Message Machine has an excellent quarter century record of slimy accomplishment. And this machine couldn’t care less whether they or anyone else likes the GOP nominee. The only difference between 2012 and other years like 2004 or 1988 is money. This year the Republicans will have at lease several hundreds of millions of dollars more (via Super PACs) to run completely phony, BS, manufactured ads to demonize Obama.

And this is why Mitt Romney is the clear-cut, prohibitive favorite to be the next President of the United States.

TJ Walker is the founder of AmericanLP www.americanlp.org, a Democratic Super PAC.

Bailout Binging Bainster TV Ad

We at AmericanLP have created a new ad to spotlight Mitt Romney’s hypocrisy on the issue of bailouts. By now, most observers have learned that Mitt Romney was against a bailout for Detroit. But what even many political insiders don’t realize is that Mitt Romney has been the beneficiary of a Federal bailout of sorts. As head of Bain and Co in the early 90s (he had been brought back from Bain Capital to sort out the mess at the mother company), Romney was in charge of keeping Bain from imploding under a huge mountain of debt. In addition to firing lots of people (naturally), Romney also squeezed suppliers and other creditors. What’s more, Bain had a $38 million loan from the Bank of New England, and that the Bank of New England had its own problems and had been taken over by the FDIC.

Romney shrewdly re-negotiated the Bain loan from $38 million to $28 million. So what does that mean, exactly? Well, since the FDIC is an arm of the Federal government, that means, essentially, that the FDIC (ahem, taxpayers) ate the difference. In other words, Romney conned the government into giving him and his cronies a $10 million bailout.

Yes, this was legal for Romney to do-other business people do it all the time. But it was a bailout to the tune of $10 million, Romney did personally benefit, and it’s a bit rich for Romney to be so sanctimonious about other people getting bailouts. Critics of our ad would suggest that it is unfair to imply that Romney benefited personally from the $10, million write-offs. While the money went to Bain and Co, Romney actually benefited to a much greater degree than $10 million. If Bain and Co had not gotten the bailout, it would have likely imploded. If Bain and Co had imploded, it would have likely tainted Bain Capital to such a degree that it would have been destroyed. If Bain Capital had been dismantled, Romney would have never been able to make his quarter billion that has allowed him the life of the perpetual candidate. Yes, this stuff is complicated-but that’s why rich finance guys like Romney are able to play the system to their advantage.

We start the ad with images of Ronald Reagan talking about the Chicago welfare queen in a Cadillac. This was a story Reagan told over and over again in the 1976 and 1980 campaigns. Even though Reagan never specified it was a black woman, it was widely assumed by most observers across the spectrum that Reagan was in fact talking about a black woman from Chicago with 80 different fake names. (It turns out that Reagan didn’t have his facts straight on this-surprise, surprise)

By showing Reagan at the beginning of the ad, we are trying to evoke the warm feelings conservative Republicans have toward Reagan and his beliefs about “welfare queens.” That is why we are literally showing what appears to be a woman driving a pink Cadillac in an inner city. We then show that in fact the “woman” is none other than Mitt Romney in drag. Romney should actually be seen as a modern day welfare queen who ripped off the government for more than any “welfare queen” from the inner city could ever imagine.

By portraying Romney this way, we are attempting to turn ugly racist beliefs on their head and make people realize that the biggest freeloaders on the government system are actually people who look like Mitt Romney.

At the end of the ad, we show Mitt Romney’s vacation mansion worth $10 million. We aren’t suggesting that Romney criminally stole tax dollars to buy his house illegally. But money is fungible, so any money that benefits Romney in one account can be used to purchase luxuries from any other account.

The point is that Romney and his colleagues at Bain were already wealthy by the early 1990s when the difficulties with the loan arose. Because, as we know, “corporations are people,” Romney and his cronies weren’t personally liable for the full $38 million. Instead, just the corporate entity of Bain and Company was liable. But there was nothing stopping Romney or his wealthy colleagues at Bain from paying back the full $10 million out of their own pocket at the time. For that matter, Romney and his colleagues could have paid the Government back in later years, after they’d all become super, super rich.

The bottom line is Romney got the best deal he could, just because he could. And yet he belongs to a political party that says people who do that are evil parasites for not being “rugged individuals” and succeeding on their own merits.

Finally, our goal here is to make conservatives sickened by the hypocrisy of Romney taking bailouts and for moderates and independents to be disgusted by Romney for making himself richer at the expense of average taxpayers. This bailout for Romney is a perfect window into why Romney should be seen as an utterly detestable and phony candidate regardless of one’s ideological position. Please take a look at the ad below.

http://youtu.be/-L8oCg_pM2M

More info at www.americanlp.org

Daily National Breifing 2/17

  AmericanLP covers all the top headlines in politics on both sides of the aisle in this morning’s news brief. Major headlines yesterday once again pointed to a rebounding economy. New applications for unemployment hit a 4-year low. Also, the DNC released a new ad, which you can view at the 1:15 mark, highlighting the diverging ideologies between the Obama administration’s decision to save the auto industry and Mitt Romney’s 2008 Op-Ed “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt”. The bailout was unequivocally a successful administrative decision for President Obama, and coupling this with the rate for unemployment applications falling, and last week’s news that the overall unemployment rate has fallen to 8.3 percent, we have public opinion of the President quickly on the rise. 44% of Americans, according to a Pew Research Center poll believe economic conditions will be better in 2013 than this year. This coincides with a CNN poll yesterday showing the President’s approval rating is back to 50% for the first time in 8 months. The administration, and the Obama re-election campaign, have really begun hammering home the jobs numbers, focusing not on the unemployment rate so much, as that number is still unfortunately high, but rightly talking about how bad things were when Obama came into office (750,000 jobs hemorrhaging from the economy per month) to how his policies have vastly turned this country around (250,000 jobs added in January; a 1 million point swing) and have created the most manufacturing jobs since the 1990’s.

Switching over, AmericanLP discusses the latest from the GOP presidential campaign. Mitt Romney, on the verge of losing his front runner status in some polls, gave a speech Thursday in which he addressed the concerns of entrepreneurs looking for funding to start their own business. In a swipe at the Solyndra controversy, Romney excoriated the benefits of government funding a start-up business and instead suggested entrepreneurs should apply to venture capitalists, angels, or their parents for funding. A statement such as this is on par with Romney’s “$10,000 bet” and once again reinforces the notion that Romney is so fiscally out-of-touch with the general American public (the average salary for Americans is $26,000/year; Romney makes $57,000/day) that it’s hard to fathom how he’ll win the nomination. Romney was born to the kind of wealth where if he wanted to start his own company, he could go to his parents for the capital to get the project off the ground. However, most Americans cannot. Most Americans struggle to pay their own bills, and many are helping their parents through retirement after the recession. It seems every time Romney opens his mouth, he further ostracizes himself from the general American public. Maybe that’s why he chose to drop out of the CNN Georgia debate scheduled in a couple weeks. Rick Santorum also declined the invitation; his motivations for doing so are less clear. With less money and generally one of the candidates who performs well in these debates, it doesn’t really play to Santorum’s strengths not to participate. But Santorum was not immune to the ‘tax return release’ scrutiny either. Santorum released 4 years of his tax returns and they paint a startling contrast to much of what Santorum has been saying on the campaign trail. Posturing himself as a threat to big government, Santorum has actually made $3.6M in lobbying fees since losing his re-election bid for the U.S. Senate. Try as he might, Santorum seems just as much a “Washington Insider” as Newt Gingrich.

A new segment on AmericanLP, “News From The 14th Century,” highlights the ridiculous spectacle yesterday from Congress where Darrell Issa barred a woman from testifying on a birth control hearing in response to the contraception controversy. Republicans, for all their talk of individual freedom, want to deny women access to birth control, even though 98% of Catholic women say they have used some form of contraceptive in their life. Issa, instead of allowing one woman to testify, decided to fill the panel with men and priests. Clearly, they’ll have a deeper understanding of contraception than any woman might…

These are just a few of the highlights from this morning’s briefing. Watch the whole video for more news in politics from around the country. ~ Jason Owen with TJ Walker

Is Mitt Romney “Severely Freudian?”

( – promoted by John Morgan)

If you are like me, you are probably still poking your finger in your ear trying to figure out if you heard Mitt Romney correctly when he called himself  a “Severely conservative Republican.” That one goes in the gaffe hall of fame for numerous reasons. Here is a new radio ad that my organization AmericanLP has going up on ABC Radio in Michigan later this week.

Who is Mitt Romney?

Voiceover from Romney ‘I was a severely conservative Republican.’

Severely conservative???

The word ‘severely’ is most commonly used to describe the following: Disabled, depressed, ill, limited, injured.

So, Michigan conservatives, Mitt Romney basically thinks conservatism is like a ‘disease.’

If you’re a moderate/independent Michigan Republican, how do you feel about a politician who doesn’t believe in anything, but implies, ‘I’ll pretend to be a diseased extremist, even if I think it’s crazy?’

Mitt Romney’s father, George Romney was a great Michigan governor who always spoke his mind. He stood up to his church and GOP extremists regarding civil rights.

But Mitt Romney? Has he ever stood up for something unpopular?

Mitt Romney, he’s not his father’s son. Mitt Romney thinks he can ‘brain wash’ the rest of us.

Paid for By AmericanLP, not associated with a candidate or candidate’s committee.

What is the significance of Mitt Romney winning both CPAC and the Maine Caucus?

Romney’s victory at CPAC reveals clearly that there are exactly three (and only three) core principles animating modern day conservatives:

1.    Any Democrat in office, no matter how moderate or conservative, is the biggest problem in the world.

2.    Barack Obama, even if he governed exactly like Ronald Reagan, is a European/African-style Socialist/Communist/Muslim and must be removed from office by any means necessary.

3.    Getting and holding onto presidential power is all that matters for Republicans.

There…that’s it. That is the total sum of conservative beliefs in 2012 in America. If you thought the list included something like smaller government or lower deficits then you are an ignorant rube who just fell off of a turnip truck.

If you doubt me, just look at someone like Ann Coulter. A year ago she was proclaiming that Mitt Romney stood for nothing and was a guaranteed loser to Obama. Now, she heartily endorses Romney and predicts he will beat Obama. What’s changed in a year?

The change was that the Republicans couldn’t get any talented politicians to run for President. And now they are left with Mitt Romney plus three other candidates who are such unappealing extremists, psychopaths, homophobes or just out and out drooling fanatics that they are guaranteed to lose 50 states to Obama. So now Romney, for whatever his flaws (and the list gets longer and bigger every day) appears to be the only GOP candidate who won’t lose 50 states. So of course Coulter, a majority of the party elders, and a plurality of CPAC have all fallen in line behind Romney because if you look at the list of core values (above), Romney is the only one who helps with value number 3.

So this leads us to Maine and the broader political landscape. Yes, Rick Santorum is leading Romney by 15 points in nationwide polls and yes that’s embarrassing to Romney. Yes, Romney got even fewer votes in Maine than he did four years ago and almost lost to the loony Ron Paul and that is embarrassing.

But these things just don’t matter. Here’s why:

While Rick Santorum still looks like a nice young man not-named Mitt Romney, Santorum doesn’t have the political skills to organize himself out of a brown paper bag. Santorum has seemingly devoted himself to three big ideas in his life 1. Stopping gays from having sex. 2. Reducing the chances of heterosexuals from having sex by restricting the availability of birth control, and 3. Punishing people for having sex by making it impossible for them to have abortions.

Most national Democrats and national political commentators are too polite to say it, but here’s the truth about Rick Santorum: he is a sex-obsessed pervert and there is no way a national party that lusts for power is ever going to nominate this loser.

Romney let Santorum have a little fun this week by winning some meaningless, non-delegate allocating primaries and caucuses, but if it’s one thing that everyone can agree on regarding Romney is that he knows numbers and he knows how to count. Team Romney is going to figure out to the dollar how many negative ads they need to run against Santorum in every single state so that Romney can come out ahead, even if it’s by one vote, of Santorum (or Gingrich if he re-emerges). So it’s not impossible for Santorum to actually see his 15 point national polling lead over Romney to grow to 20 or even 25 points and yet still lose nearly every significant primary as the campaign rolls along.

Romney understands that if he gets 1144 delegates, he will win the GOP nomination. And it just doesn’t matter if no one in the party likes him or is enthusiastic. It doesn’t matter if other politicians in his party remain more popular. It doesn’t matter if the other candidates hate his guts. If Romney gets the nomination he will be running against an incumbent who has an unemployment rate over 8% and Romney reasons he will have a better than 50% shot at being the next President. And Romney also correctly understands that nobody in his party really stands for anything other than hating Obama and gaining power so the Party will, in fact, rally around him in the fall. Romney also understands that in any given state, his team (through the power of his super PACs) has the power to attack and destroy anybody who is ahead of him in the polls, so that Romney can win the vast majority of primaries. And given the number of states that still allot delegates on a winner take all basis, it is only a matter of time, mathematically, before Romney wins the number of delegates to garner the nomination, no matter how many ugly 36% to 35% victories he has to suffer.

And that’s why nothing that happened in the last week has changed the fundamental dynamics of the GOP race for President.

more at www.americanlp.org

ROMNENOMICS

Watch Democratic SuperPacAmerican LP's New Anti Mitt Romney Ad: ROMNENOMICS http://americanlp.org/2012/02/10/romnenomics/ What are Mitt RomneyWhat are Mitt Romney's “In-Context” Economic Views?
Mitt Romney and his campaign have complained incessantly about being quoted “out-of-context” on his economic views. In an effort to help the Romney campaign we have gathered all of his economic views in one place and organized them in a comprehensive manner in order to give voters a complete and thorough view of Romney's economic philosophy.'s “In-Context” Economic Views? Mitt Romney and his campaign have complained incessantly about being quoted “out-of-context” on his economic views. In an effort to help the Romney campaign we have gathered all of his economic views in one place and organized them in a comprehensive manner in order to give voters a complete and thorough view of Romney's economic philosophy.

ROMNENOMICS

Watch Democratic SuperPacAmerican LP’s New Anti Mitt Romney Ad: ROMNENOMICS

http://americanlp.org/2012/02/…

What are Mitt Romney’s “In-Context” Economic Views?

Mitt Romney and his campaign have complained incessantly about being quoted “out-of-context” on his economic views. In an effort to help the Romney campaign we have gathered all of his economic views in one place and organized them in a comprehensive manner in order to give voters a complete and thorough view of Romney’s economic philosophy.

ROMNENOMICS

Watch Democratic SuperPacAmerican LP’s New Anti Mitt Romney Ad: ROMNENOMICS

http://americanlp.org/2012/02/…

What are Mitt Romney’s “In-Context” Economic Views?

Mitt Romney and his campaign have complained incessantly about being quoted “out-of-context” on his economic views. In an effort to help the Romney campaign we have gathered all of his economic views in one place and organized them in a comprehensive manner in order to give voters a complete and thorough view of Romney’s economic philosophy.

Mitt Romney Announces “I’m not concerned about the very poor”

( – promoted by John Morgan)

Mitt Romney is to be commended for his honesty. This ranks right up there with “I like being able to fire people,” and “corporations are people, my friend.” Romney has shown that while he may have the golden touch for all of his personal investment choices, he has a tin ear for politics. Romney doesn’t even bother trying to mask his contempt for non-rich Americans. Once again, Mitt Romney shows he has the same compassion level for the non-rich that the Mel Brooks’ character King Louis did when he was using live peasants for skeet shooting practice.

Here is a new ad that we are in the process of buying national cable TV news for now.