ISIS

President Obama is bombing ISIS targets in Syria, an act of war against that country, in a widening of Mid-East conflict stemming from the ill fated Iraq War begun by George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.  The destabilization of Iraq caused by our invasion and overthrow if its government (under false pretenses) has resulted in the creation of ISIS.  It is a direct result of horrible foreign policy decisions and until Iraq develops a fully inclusive, effective central government which isn’t a US puppet regime such destabilization will continue.

We can again invade Iraq and bomb ISIS and, perhaps, destroy the group’s capabilities only to watch another such organization form and threaten stability in the region.  These are the results of having an idiot in the Oval Office who started a war for regime change without even understanding the dynamics at work in that nation.  Bush wanted to avenge his father’s honor and in so doing opened a Pandora’s Box of trouble which will last for decades.

Many foreign policy experts predicted this sort of long lasting instability after Bush and Cheney’s bloodlust and thirst for defense industry profits (Cheney’s Halliburton made $39 billion in profits from the war) motivated them to lie to the country about Saddam’s non existent WMD’s.  These are the fruits of the biggest foreign policy blunder of the last century.

ISIS does not pose a threat to our strategic national security.  They beheaded two American journalists who chose to enter a war zone voluntarily to do their jobs.  While regrettable we cannot choose to go to war every time an American makes a foolish or dangerous decision.  At some point they must accept personal responsibility for their entering a dangerous region.  Israel murdered thousands of Palestinians and many Americans sat back and cheered the slaughter.  What this says about pr priorities is sickening.

ISIS simply doesn’t have the capability to strike definitively inside this country.  Their 20-30,000 untrained fighters have to hold and secure the areas already under their control plus battle opposition forces in Iraq, Syria and the Kurdish region of Iraq.  Their estimated $3 million/day in revenues sound impressive until one understands they actually have expenses.  Since they control a considerable area in both Syria and Iraq remember that now, as the governing body, they must administer governmental services in this region.  Schools, prisons, road construction and repair, security and all those other normal governmental services normal in today’s world are now their responsibility.  This costs money.  Those government workers expect to be paid as do their fighters.  Their army also needs training and weapons.  These things cost money.  Three million a day won’t go far especially now that Obama is targeting their sources of revenue.  Bombing of their refinery and a tightening of contributions from wealthy Arabs and closing the black market for their oil will reduce their revenues considerably.

Frankly I’m more concerned with the threat of ebola more than I am ISIS.  Senators John McCain and Lindsay Graham can inflame passions all they want in their bloodlust for war but remember these two, a year ago, were screaming that we should align ourselves with ISIS against the Assad regime in Syria.  They have no credibility when it comes to national security.  I’d rather see us concentrate on eradicating ebola in western Africa before it migrates to other areas of the world.  This is the more serious threat.

One thought on “ISIS”

  1. I personally think we do have some residual responsibility in Iraq although it is limited.  If we were to do it right we wouldn’t have the problems we currently are having.  A few months ago, on another site I suggested that there were certain things that needed to happen for us to have a reasonable chance of success.  These things include the removal of Nouri Al Maliki, a George W. Bush linked Iraqi leader, a buy in from significant Sunni groups leading to a more integrated government.  Supporting the Pesh Merga and other Kurds.  And finally, the annexation of a portion of Syria with protection provided by an international coalition to provide a safe haven for the moderate groups in Syria from both Bashir Asad and from ISIS/ISIL.  

    Well, Nouri Al Maliki, after first resisting, accepted the election results.  Shortly after 20 Sunni tribes met with the Iraqi government and agreed to work with them against ISIS/ISIL.  Now Turkey is permitting the Pesh Murga to travel through Turkey to support their Kurdish breathren in Syria.  Their are still two things missing.  The Iraqi government is still consolidating and I haven’t heard much about Sunni integration into the government.  I have to assume it is ongoing but very slowly.  Second, because that safe haven in Syria was not established, when we attack ISIS/ISIL, Bashir Asad attacks the moderates in Syria.  So, right now, the best case is ISIS/ISIL marginalized in Syria with Bashir Asad consolidated in power and able to take on the remnants of ISIS/ISIL in Syria. This presupposed the Iraqi government can get its act together quickly enough to push ISIS/ISIL with American support via on the ground spotters/targeters and air support.  

    I really am not overly worried about Ebola.  The Republicans act like they think they can prevent it from coming here while simultaneously doing nothing to prevent the spread in the rest of the world.  There is something wrong with this world view.  

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