Voters Are Bailing on Obama

Barack Obama’s support among his core minority constituencies is quickly eroding.  African-Americans are especially troubling with poll numbers now around 50% on his jobs record.  Hispanic support is also disappearing as the President slashes more and more critical social programs supporting poor and working Americans.  His prime focus on bailing out Wall Street instead of main Street resulted in a mass loss of 87 House seats in 2010 but instead of concentrating on aiding the poor, working people, children and the elderly he turned around and began cutting their programs to mollify the rich, white Republicans in Congress.

The current debt ceiling crisis now finds him putting major cuts to Social Security on the table while a cent of $700/year in Pentagon spending is touched.  White liberals bailed on Obama already and with Blacks and Hispanics now showing rapidly declining support he seems doomed to be a one term President.

A surge of Black voters in 2008 along with young people elected Obama with a clear plurality.  Now with overall approval numbers under 50% (42%-47%) and high disapproval figures he would lose if the election were held this summer.  His actions during the debt ceiling negotiations are eroding that support even more.  The people who voted in 2008 will join the other 50% of Americans on the sidelines in 2012 and not vote at all if their choices are Obama versus a Republican.  If Democrats want to keep the White House they need to find another candidate.  He would lose Pennsylvania if the election were held today.

Those polls are even more ominous for the president: In every reputable battleground state poll conducted over the past month, Obama’s support is weak. In most of them, he trails Republican front-runner Mitt Romney. For all the talk of a closely fought 2012 election, if Obama can’t turn around his fortunes in states such as Michigan and New Hampshire, next year’s presidential election could end up being a GOP landslide.

On April 7th the LA Times reported the first significant slides in this voter demographic:  in March Black support fell seven points and 11% among Hispanics.  Only about half of African-American voters now approve of the President’s effort on creating jobs.  That is the number one issue among voters and will likely drive their decisions in 2012.  

George W. Bush understood the importance of pleasing his base.  Barack Obama, since he first took office, has worked to disenfranchise his.  His policies of cutting spending, escalating the war in Afghanistan, starting a war in Libya, continuing torture, not closing Guantanamo, and aggressively cutting the social safety net has exasperated his liberal base.  Inaction on repealing DADT lost him the LGBT vote and when you begin cobbling together a winning coalition Obama has lost the support he needs for re-election.

Democrats can either find a primary challenger or sit on the sidelines and watch an independent such as Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont siphon off their traditional voters.  If the race comes down to Obama/Romney the Republican will win.  A third candidate would guarantee that outcome.  Obama has a short window in which to shore up his base and any cuts to Social Security during the debt ceiling negotiations will insure his failure as a president and land him in the bottom rung of presidents.  No one on or approaching retirement age will vote for a man who cut Social Security.  A viable third party hasn’t seen such a golden opportunity since the Republicans replaced the Whigs.

What was the primary issue on which Obama ran in 2008?  He spent fifteen minutes of his stump speech promising to change Washington.  I can see Republicans playing those clips over and over next year and ripping him for his colossal failure to do so.  I said at the time he was pandering to voters and I was correct.  The best thing Barack Obama can do now is step aside and do an LBJ.

7 thoughts on “Voters Are Bailing on Obama”

  1. Speaker John Boehner’s frequent accusation that the president has no plan of his own to deal with the deficit is inaccurate.

    Along with myself, millions of Democrats are seriously troubled by Obama’s continuing failure to get out in front with a resolution that all of us can support and fight for.

    It should now be apparent to all of us that something is beginning to stink in the White House.

    Allow this one analysis:

    I would suggest that Obama definitely has a plan…one that is structured to meet the demands of Wall Street, the banking industry and the super rich by selling out the poor, the working families, the middle class and the elderly, including millions of African-Americans who trusted in him as a brother.

    The president’s delay in announcing this plan’s details is with good reason…and it is pure machiavellian.

    He is banking on the tea party crazies and other far right Republicans to so terrify and panic these same Democrat groups with their own draconian measures that it will allow him to sell this betrayal as a lessor evil.

    Looks to me like we better be prepared to see this guy turn his back on us and cross the picket line to the other side.

    Matt Thomas


  2. The Republicans certainly will provide a nominee who will be far more progressive than Obama, won’t they?

    This self destructive drum beat of criticism of someone who has done some good things (but hasn’t been “as good” as we would like) instead of focusing on the obstinate (and, until the current debt ceiling fight, united) currently radicaly conservative Republican Party, is declining to be part of the solution and therefore is part of the problem.

    One of the MSNBC commentators (might have been Chris Matthews) dismissed the effectiveness of extremists on both sides of the spectrum by saying that some people choose to debate ideology instead of facts.

    By consuming your own, you are aiding the opposition.  

  3. Look who’s selling us out:

    “”We’ve got to educate the American people at the same time we educate the President of the United States.  The Republicans, Speaker Boehner or Majority Leader Cantor did not call for Social Security cuts in the budget deal. The President of the United States called for that,”

    Read the full text and watch the video here:

    Democrats are being sold down the river by their own President. If we don’t stand up and tell him he’s wrong, who will?

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