NJ, VA Guv Races Tightening

On a DGA (Democratic Governor’s Association) conference call Monday John Brougher said polls in both New Jersey and Virginia show tossups five weeks before election day.  The GOP has targeted both races for crucial wins going into next year’s Congressional and state races.  2010 sees 37 Governerships up for grabs and the DGA has targeted quite a few for pick up.  They will not favor any of the Pennsylvanians running in the five way Democratic primary.  The DGA does intend to be active here in the general election however.

Election polls in New Jersey are famously inaccurate and always seem to undercount Democratic voters and turnout.  If that holds Jon Corzine should win re-election.  Chris Christie’s negatives now are larger than his favorable ratings as Jerseans learn more about his ethical lapses as U.S. Attorney.  In Virginia Bob McDonnell’s infamous comments from his master’s thesis are haunting him with women voters.  Though he continues trying to claim the extremist views about working women and contraception are part of his past he tried to enact them into law while serving as a state legislator.

Governorships are particularly important going into the 2010 census and redistricting.  One advantage for Pennsylvania and the Northeast is that fewer residents are moving south and southwest due to the Republican economic meltdown so we may lose fewer Congressional seats.  Still, state legislatures will redraw districts and the Governors can have a significant influence on the outcomes.  State Supreme Courts will have the final answers on whether gerrymandered districts are legal so do NOT forget to vote for Jack Panella November 3rd.

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